Mike's Hard Takes

We’re going to look ahead to this upcoming 2025 college football season and preview each of the power four conferences. For the purposes of today’s article, I’m looking only at conference championship contention, and not national championship/playoff contention. I implemented a tier system for the 16 teams in the conference based upon floor, ceiling and likelihood to win the conference. So let’s dive in.

Tier 1: Conference Championship Contenders

South Carolina Gamecocks

• The Gamecocks have my 2025 Heisman winner and possible top 5 pick, LaNorris Sellers at QB, an absolute freak of nature in Nyck Harbor and top sophomore edge rusher in Dylan Stewart. South Carolina finished last season strong and finished just short of making the playoff. I expect them to take another step forward under Shane Beamer and contend for the SEC Championship and beyond.

LSU Tigers

• Of all the teams in this tier, LSU is the one with the biggest variance in potential outcomes. LSU brought in the best portal class in the country, and return a possible first-rounder at QB in Garrett Nussmeier brings a dynamic ceiling to the Tigers – I could see a 2023 Florida State season from this group. However, I will say I could also see a 2024 Florida State-type season from this group, not as cataclysmic as the ‘Noles, but just one where the portal players don’t mesh all the way, and the underwhelming vibes out of Baton Rouge resurface for Brian Kelly’s group.

Florida Gators

• How many people would’ve thought Billy Napier would still be in Gainesville right now a few months ago? If DJ Lagway is healthy, this offense should be lethal. Couple Lagway with Baugh at RB, and spring game superstar Dallas Wilson – oh my! Florida’s defense is a work in progress, but if they can be serviceable on that side of the ball, Florida can win double digit games and be in SEC contention.

Alabama Crimson Tide

• I think year two under Kalen DeBoer will be better than year 1. While Jalen Milroe was dynamic, he wasn’t a good fit in DeBoer’s offense. Having a signal caller that matches better with the system in Tuscaloosa should bring more efficiency to the offense, making them a better team than in 2024.

Texas Longhorns

• The conference runner-up from 2024 loses a lot of production from their playoff run. However, I foresee a drastic upgrade at quarterback as Sark ushers in the Arch Manning era in Austin. Coupled with an offensive line that, while has to replace four starters, it’s not replacing them with young players. I see the guard-center-guard combo being lethal at the point of attack run blocking, which should lead perfectly into the play-action downfield passing game that Sark and Arch want to do. On the defensive side of the ball, the Longhorns boast the best edge room in the country, if the Longhorns get a lead, and Colin Simmons and co. are allowed to pin their ears back, watch out.

Tier 2: Low Ceiling-High Floor (teams that are guaranteed 7-9 wins, no more, no less)

Georgia Bulldogs

• Not going to lie, I mostly have them here based off of their name. Georgia lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball, and Gunner Stockton didn’t show too much in his limited playing time at the end of the season last year. If Kirby can convince his team that they’re there on a football scholarship, and not one for F1 they can be dangerous, but their floor is a lot lower than in past years.

Texas A&M Aggies

• The Aggies took about half of the receivers in the portal to make up for the lack of explosivity (not a word, I know – but you still understood it) last year. The defense should be stout under Elko, and the offense is guaranteed to have a floor with a good college QB in Marcel Reed, but he is limited as a passer.

Kentucky Wildcats

• This is where the Wildcats, and Texas A&M coaching legend Mark Stoops live. Quarterback Cutter Boley has good tools to build around – coupled with that tough Kentucky defense and Kentucky should continue its trend of being a feisty, tough out, who pulls an upset or two.

Vanderbilt Commodores

• Diego Pavia brings a certain toughness and grit to a program that only a 10 year college senior like himself can bring, and one could argue he’s completely changed the personality and short term trajectory of this program. We’ll see if the program can build on a great 2024 campaign.

Tier 3: Who the Hell Knows?

Tennessee Volunteers

• Tennessee is a talented team, that made the playoff last season. Right now, post-Nico their status is up in the air, and I’ll make a further decision on them once there’s more clarity.

Ole Miss Rebels

• I expect the offense to be dynamic as always, and I expect the defense to be disruptive. Overall, I expect a typical-Lane Kiffin season filled with very good, but not great.

Tier 4: Low Floor-Medium Ceiling (Could win 4, could win 8 games)

Oklahoma Sooners

• Well, it can’t get worse than last year, can it? The offense has nowhere to go but up, and John Mateer is a definite upgrade over Jackson Arnold, and their offensive line should be improved as well, my biggest concern is over their weapons on offense. Deion Burks is the only pass-catcher of note, and just on an overall vibe check, Brent Venables doesn’t elicit the best. I just see a middling program, on the road towards Nebraska territory.

Auburn Tigers

• I would believe a lot more in Auburn if they weren’t going to be quarterbacked by Jackson Arnold. Jameis Jr, who was a turnover machine, that didn’t even make it to the conference opener for the Sooners last season is a prime example of recruiting the ranking over recruiting the player. We’ll see if they can lock in enough to get the ball to Auburn’s playmakers on the outside, but the more I type this, the less I like them.

Tier 5: Bottomfeeders

Arkansas Razorbacks

• In what’s likely Sam Pittman’s last season, Arkansas has the best QB in this tier of teams, but lost a lot of their 2024 squad to the portal.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

• I don’t expect Jeff Lebby to make it to the Egg Bowl….

Missouri Tigers

• Mizzou has the best coach of this bunch, but lost a lot, and is looking at a rebuild year.

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