Mike's Hard Takes

Kansas City Chiefs

Until proven otherwise, the road to the Lombardi still runs through Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes is the ultimate playoff equalizer, and Andy Reid continues to adapt his offense no matter who’s catching the passes. Even in a loaded AFC, the Chiefs’ experience, coaching, and clutch factor keep them at the very top of the contender list.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills may have taken some playoff gut punches in recent years, but Josh Allen’s ceiling is still as high as anyone’s in the league. They’ve reshaped the roster to be younger and faster on defense, and if their offense clicks in January, Buffalo has the firepower to finally break through.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow’s health is the whole story here. When he’s 100%, the Bengals have proven they can go toe-to-toe with anyone, including the Chiefs. Add in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and a defense that can’t be worse, and Cincinnati is right back in the thick of things.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson just came off an MVP level season and looks more comfortable in Todd Monken’s passing attack. The defense remains elite, the run game is dangerous, and the Ravens have the type of balanced roster that travels well in the playoffs — the kind that can win ugly or light up the scoreboard.

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud is awesome — he already plays with the poise of a veteran, and the Texans surrounded him with real weapons like Nico Collins, and DeMeco Ryans has built a culture that’s ahead of schedule, and Houston’s mix of youth and confidence makes them a scary January opponent.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith form one of the league’s best offensive trios coupled with a dangerous O-Line and Saquon Barkley, and the defense reloaded with young, athletic playmakers. I love what their defense can be this season. No other team seems to blend getting younger, cheaper and better than Philly.

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC, they moved on from Cooper Kupp and replaced him with Devante Adams, and have one of the nastiest defensive fronts in the league. If Stafford can stay healthy then this team can build leads so that their pass rushers can just pin their ears back and get after opposing teams’ quarterbacks. I love the Rams this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield silenced a lot of doubters these past few years, and with Mike Evans back, Tampa Bay’s offense has real chemistry. Todd Bowles’ defense still has bite, and with an offense that should be well rounded, watch out for the Bucs.

Washington Commanders

This is the boldest pick on the list, but the upside is real. Jayden Daniels is coming off of a rookie campaign that put him on the map as a superstar. Washington’s defense — loaded with talent in the front seven — can close out games. With Dan Quinn steering the ship, they look to build upon last year’s surprising run to the NFC Championship game.